Clean hydrogen is facing a big reality check

Hydrogen is sometimes kept as a main key for the energy transfer. It can be produced with several methods with low emissions and can play a role in cleaning the industries that range from agriculture and chemicals to aviation and remote shipping. However, this moment is complicated for the green fuel because a new one from the International Energy Agency looks. A number of major projects are exposed to cancellations and delays, especially in the USA and Europe. In the United States in particular, after changes in the most important tax credits and cuts to support renewable energies, a slowdown. Nevertheless, there are lights for the industry, including in China, and new markets could soon become crucial for growth. Here are three things that you should know about the hydrogen state in 2025. 1. The expectations for the annual clean hydrogen production until 2030 are shrinking for the first time. While hydrogen has the potential to serve as a clean fuel, most are now produced with processes that use fossil fuels. From 2025, around one million tons of hydrogen with low emissions will be produced annually. That is less than 1% of total hydrogen production. In the global hydrogen of last year, the IEA predicted that the global production of hydrogen with low emissions would increase up to 49 million tons a year by 2030 to 2030. This prediction has increased steadily since 2021 because more places all over the world bring money into the development and scaling of the technology. In the 2025 edition, however, the IEA production forecast had shrunk to 37 million tons per year by 2030. This is still a large extension compared to today's numbers, but it is the first time that the agency has lowered its predictions for the end of the decade. The cancellations of both electrolysis projects (those that use electricity to generate hydrogen) and carbon cover projects as reasons for the withdrawal. The canceled and late projects included locations in Africa, America, Europe and Australia. 2. China today dominates production and could produce competitive green hydrogen by the end of the decade. Speaking of electrolysis projects, China is the driving force in the production and development of electrolysiszers, the devices that use electricity to generate green hydrogen according to the new IEA. From July 2025, the country accounted for 65% of the installed or almost installed electrolyator capacity of the world. It also produces almost 60% of global electrolysers. An important barrier for clean hydrogen today is that dirty methods based on fossil fuels are simply as cheaper than cleaner. But China is well on the way to narrowing this gap. Today it is about three times more expensive to create and install an electrolyator somewhere else in the world. The country could produce green hydrogen, which is with fossil hydrogen with fossil hydrogen until the end of the decade. This could make the fuel an obvious choice for the new and existing use of hydrogen. 3. Southeast Asia could be a large emerging market for hydrogen with low emissions. A region that could become an important player on the green hydrogen market is Southeast Asia. The economy is growing quickly, as well as the energy requirement. In Southeast Asia there is already an existing hydrogen market. Today, the region uses around 4 million tons of hydrogen every year, mainly in the oil refinery and in chemical business, where it is used to produce ammonia and methanol. International shipping is also concentrated in the region of Singapore region, which delivered a sixth of all fuel used in global shipping in 2024, more than any other individual location. Today this sum consists almost exclusively of fossil fuels. However, there was work to test cleaner fuels such as methanol and ammonia and to shift to hydrogen in the long term. Clean hydrogen could get into these existing industries and reduce emissions. There are currently 25 projects in the region, although additional support for renewable energies will be of crucial importance in order to put considerable capacities into operation. Overall, hydrogen will receive a reality check and show problems with cutting the hype that we have seen in recent years. In the next five years it will show whether the fuel can meet the high hopes. This article comes from the weekly climate crimetter from with Technology Review, the weekly climate newsletter. To get it every Wednesday in your inbox, register here.